Of course, backers of electric vehicles, or E.V.'s, floated those assurances in the 1970s, '80s, and '90s, when General Motors released its star-crossed EV1. Today, almost no one drives an electric car.
But with a gallon of premium gas topping $3 on average, and as carmakers and entrepreneurs pour money into the latest generation of electric cars, the prospects appear brighter.
Trading the internal combustion engine for batteries could bring well-publicized advantages: re! ducing pollution, raising mileage, promoting energy independence. E.V.'s and plug-in hybrids could deliver the gasoline equivalent of 100 miles a gallon or more. For consumers, that would in effect roll back the clock to buck-a-gallon gas. Car owners could save money in their sleep, recharging in the off hours when electricity is cheapest.
And compared with hydrogen fuel-cell cars, the infrastructure for electric cars already exists, requiring only more plugs in more places. Aside from home recharging, it would be easier to install pay-per-use outlets at curbsides and in parking lots than to spawn a network of hydrogen filling stations. Wal-Mart and McDonald's might offer convenient electricity for customers or employees.
Sounds good? There is one problem. There is still not a single E.V. or plug-in hybrid available that can approach the driving range, interior room and performance of a typical gas-powered family sedan, at anywhere near the price t! hat an average consumer would pay.
From a technical! standpo int, the Tesla Roadster may well be the most impressive E.V. yet. But this plug-in two-seater, based on the Lotus Elise, is cramped and has near-zero cargo space. Its $100,000 price is well beyond the budget of even most sports car buyers.
So automakers, including Tesla, are again assuring Americans that practical, affordable E.V.'s are on the way.
Experts say the cars' arrival hinges on two make-or-break issues:
Developing safe, affordable lithium-ion batteries lasting 100,000 miles.
Overcoming a psychological barrier among people who can imagine the benefits — but who can also see themselves stranded with a dead battery and no place or time to recharge.
As for batteries, progress has been made, but more is needed. The EV1 started with old-school lead-acid batteries; today's hybrids have more robust nickel-metal-hydride units. But the most efficient batteries are lithium-ion, the kind found in cellphones and lap! tops. These cells would double or triple the power of, say, a Toyota Prius battery pack, but at half the weight or size.
Prabhakar Patil is chief executive of Compact Power, a company vying to power a G.M. plug-in hybrid based on the Chevrolet Volt concept car — and to have them ready by 2010 or 2011. He was previously chief engineer for the Ford Escape Hybrid.
He is convinced that his company can bring in lithium-ion batteries on time and on budget — and that plug-in hybrids are the necessary bridge between gasoline and pure E.V.'s.
"If you had asked me even five years ago, I'd have said forget it," Mr. Patil said of the technology's prospects. But since Sony offered the first commercial lithium-ion cells in 1991, their costs have fallen by a factor of 12, he said. Today, California's Air Resources Board calculates that lithium-ion packs would cost $3,000 to $4,000 in mass production, cheap enough to be feasible.
! As with most plug-in proponents, G.M. envisions its Volt as a ! second c ar in a household, the one that handles commuting and errands. The Volt is designed to travel up to 40 miles on battery power alone, delivering the equivalent of 100 m.p.g. or more.
The Volt's gasoline engine would be used solely to charge the batteries, delivering a total range of 640 miles. At the Frankfurt auto show this month, G.M.'s Opel division showed the Flextreme, a variation on the Volt with a small diesel engine charging the batteries.
The issue of travel range brings up the second E.V. hurdle: the psychology of electricity. After 10 years of sales and heavy publicity, hybrids have grabbed less than 2 percent of the market. And that's for cars that don't need to be plugged in.
That's why the plug-in hybrid "is a great step toward a pure E.V.," Mr. Patil said, adding, "You skip the gas station, save time and money, and it takes away the fear factor on the limited range."
Every plug-in and E.V. on the hor! izon still takes several hours to charge, though some new approaches are being considered. Altair Nanotechnologies of Reno, Nev., claims that its batteries can be juiced up in 10 minutes via a special high-voltage charging unit, thanks to minutely scaled lithium titanate electrode materials. Those performance claims will be tested when Altair supplies batteries for a promised electric pickup from Phoenix Motorcars.
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